Market Performance at a Glance
Solar demand saw a late-season boost, but growth is beginning to level off.
September permits increased by 4 percent year over year, the first positive growth since early 2023.
Full-year 2025 forecasts adjusted slightly upward to 4.7 GW. Q4 is now projected to grow at 3 percent year over year.
California grew 10 percent year over year, pulling the national total into positive territory.
What it means for solar teams:
Most installers report full pipelines through December. For many, early October was the realistic cutoff for cash or loan deals that could be installed by year’s end. Q4 should focus on execution, not adding volume.
Preparing for 2026: The Most Important Quarter Yet
Q4 is an execution quarter. Your priorities:
- Complete 2025 installs.
- Communicate timelines clearly and document everything.
- Finalize TPO partnerships before January.
- Train reps on 2026 sales messaging.
- Prepare for a pivot where storage and TPO dominate value.
- Long-term fundamentals remain strong. Teams that adapt now will be well-positioned through 2030.
Financing Trends: Higher APRs, New Customer Dynamics
| Loan pricing continues to shift ahead of the 25D sunset. |
| Median APR reached 6.99 percent in September. |
| Low-APR products (3 to 4.99 percent) dropped from 57 to 36 percent since May. |
| Higher APR, lower-fee options are becoming lenders’ 2026 focus. |
How to adjust your sales conversations: In 2026, anchor the conversation around long-term utility savings, not the tax credit. Higher-rate, lower-fee loans can still deliver strong economics in high-cost states.
Utility Rates Strengthen Solar’s Value
Several states approved significant increases:
- Maine: 11 percent in 2026, 22 percent by 2030.
- Nevada: New demand charges adding 27 to 38 dollars monthly.
- Virginia: Export rates reduced to avoid cost.
- Kentucky: Immediate 10 percent bill increase.
Sales takeaway: Lead with the cost of doing nothing. Even without 25D, rate hikes and new demand charges make solar-plus-storage more valuable.
Federal Policy: Hard Deadlines and New Compliance Pressures
| 25D Expiration | The residential credit ends December 31, 2025. No phase-out or extensions. Most installers have already stopped selling cash or loan deals due to installation risk. |
| 48E for TPO + FEOC Compliance | Starting in 2026, at least 40 percent of TPO equipment must not come from prohibited foreign entities. – TPO is still viable through 2027. – Equipment availability may tighten. – Finalize partnerships before January. |
Solar for All challenges: Legal appeals may disrupt program stability. Teams reliant on income-qualified incentives should prepare alternatives.
TPO Will Dominate 2026
Forecasts indicate TPO will become the primary model next year. Low TPO usage in 2025 is temporary and increased adoption is driven by the end of 25D. TPO use is expected to reach 60-69% of market share in 2026. Pre-paid leases are predicted to remain niche until at least 2027.
What teams should do now:
- Finalize TPO partners.
- Train reps to sell monthly payments, not credits.
- Build an early 2026 pipeline around financing, not tax-based urgency.
Storage Remains the Bright Spot
Attachment rates continue to rise:
- National average: 38 percent.
- California: high 70s to mid-90s on NEM 3.0 TPO.
- Growth in NC, IL, AZ, and FL despite softer solar demand.
Why storage matters:
- Storage declines only 11 percent in 2026 vs 26 percent for solar.
- Storage is now the most reliable revenue driver.
- Solar-plus-storage beats grid costs in many markets.
Brand dynamics: Tesla’s supply is improving. Enphase and SolarEdge remain strong options. Maintain multiple supplier relationships to avoid constraints.
State and Utility Policy to Watch
| California | New interconnection documentation starts on November 1. SDCP launches a strong battery program. |
| Idaho | Idaho: Export credits cut 31 percent; storage becomes essential. |
| Nevada | Demand charges + 15-minute netting reduce solar-only economics. |
| Virginia | Avoided cost export rates significantly reduce solar-only returns. |
| Massachusetts | SMART 3.0 delivers strong storage adders. |
| Illinois | REC pricing increases + proposed VPP program with 10 dollars per kWh annually. |
| Kentucky | An immediate 10 percent rate increase strengthens solar savings |
Supply Chain and Equipment Trends
- Standard lead times remain 8 to 12 weeks.
- FEOC documentation adds 2-4 weeks.
- Module mix shifting toward domestic content ahead of 2026 TPO rules.
- Maintain diverse supplier relationships to reduce procurement risk.